an article in afr about bbg, page-15

KKRs offer to Pac

$600M for (-130M npat 2011)(Long term debt 400M 2011)(sales rev 1600M 2011)(930M shares outstanding 2011)

what has BBG got in comparison

(119M npat 2011) (long term debt 590M 2011)-this is the X factor! (sales rev 1650M 2011) (250M shares oustanding 2011)

obviously $600M for Billabong would be laughed at..

BBG is way oversold at the mo..

IMHO a massive hit to BBG npat for 2012 in the order of 25-30% is not out of the question.. based on lower sales and realisitc tax obligations which they avoided in 2011..

even with NPAT at $80-85M 2012 this would represent earnings of appprox 0.30 per share.. at conservative p/e of 10 this would mean a shareprice of $3.00..this is back of envelope of course..dyor

at a share price of 1.80 there is future earnings growth potential..with efficiences and direct to consumer margins kicking in over 2012,2013,2014.. big gains long term..volatility short term