Heremes, I think you make some good points, particularly the later one about the H&S showing up in a downtrend. Head and shoulders patterns mark reversals of trends, regular for an uptrend, inverted H&S for a downtrend.
Looking at the monthly chart that you've posted though, what I choose to comment on is that the USD has not made a higher high, or higher low, just a powerful rally.
It is approaching a level of support/resistance at about 90, which you have helpfully and revealingly calculated is also the first fibonacci resistance level.
The positive divergence that you've noted in the MACD has already expressed itself, and might possibly be close to spent. As an example we can look back to say, the H2 of 1987 through to the H2 1992 period on your chart, to see a couple of such divergences that only foreshadowed approx 6 month rallies. This rally in the USD has already gone for 4-5 months. It was not until 5 years after the first of the MACD divergences that the USD got beyond 6 mth rallies, and had a bull market.
