This is based on elementary arithmetic for an investor with 50 woodlots in the 2000 project.
Based on assumptions and advice provided by GTP in March 2008, the return per woodlot was calculated to be $4,792 x 50 = $239,600 as calculated below.
If we apply current prices and yield expectation to the 2000 plantings as per the formula provided the returns are as follows:
Volume assumption (refer Lonsec report) 200 cubic meters (range is 160 – 210 excluding additional resource)
Cost of production $38 / cubic meter (2006 costs were $39 with some cost savings coming through)
Conversion of GMT to BDMT 0.55
Price $207.40
Fees 5.5%
200 GMT * 0.55 (to convert to BDMT) = 110
110 (BDMT) *$207.40 (price) = $22,814 per hectare
$22,814 less costs of production (200 *$38 = $7,600)
$15,214 net harvest proceeds per hectare
$15,214 – ($15,214 * 0.055%) = $14,377
$14,377 / 3 (woodlots per hectare)
Return per woodlot $4,792 x 50 = $239,600.
The 2000 woodlots are expected to be harvested in 2011.
In terms of the calculation above, further price increases will obviously improve this outcome.
Discussions with a senior forestry executive, who was heavily involved with the Japanese to set woodchip prices, advised that a “realistic” woodchip price projection 3 years out (in 2011) would be around $250 / $260 per ton (compared with last years price of $207.40).
This would lift the total return from $239,600 to in excess of $300,000.
If the current offer is accepted, the grower will receive:-
2150 shares/woodlot x 50 x 45 cents $48375
Tax on 2150 shares @ $1.10 x 50 (46.5%) (54,990)
After tax value of asset a loss of $6615!!!!!!!!!
THIS PROPOSAL BY GTP IS A SCANDAL.FOR THOSE CONCERNED,DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION.
This is based on elementary arithmetic for an investor with 50...
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