SC, My understanding is that, they have 12 tankers filled out...

SC,

My understanding is that, they have 12 tankers filled out offshore.

They have done over the last 6 months, since they sign the Nuclear deal - so its a "one off" event.

In any case, at 2 Million barrels per tanker (assuming its one of the largest tankers), that would equate to 24M barrels.

If they flood it all in one day, yes it would have a tremendous downward movement on the price of oil.

If they did it over a month, that would be about 1 M barrels a day in excess.

A lot of that, IMHO, has been priced in, as we have been expecting the lifting of sanctions against Iran for sometime now.

IMHO, what is speculated is what output Iran can increase on a daily basis.

We will see in the next few weeks - if they can't increase by a lot in the next few weeks, the price of oil will head back up.

Lastly, we should bear in mind, oil production from the US shale region has been falling due to the drop in oil price and the inability of these companies to get additional finance.

At current oil prices, "Very Very" few oil private and public companies around the world are making money (possibly except those who still have hedging contracts).

The reporting season in the US is upon us now, it will be interesting to see how much they are bleeding and how many will go broke in the next few months.

At current oil prices, I can't see this lasting another six months.

On second thought, it is probably better to have the Iranian dump all the offshore oil storage onto the market.

JMHO.