Obviously LNG has received a lot of press recently with the 1000+% increase in share price. I have only researched LNG for a short period, but here is a very rough comparison of the companies.
LNG:
Market Cap: $1.8bn, Net Assets: $47m, Sales: $0, Loss making
Strategy: LNG tolling. LNG plans to generate revenue from tolling, this is just a fraction of the value chain compared to a company that owns its own feedstock.
LNG plant development cost = US$500m/MTPA
Pros:
Two sites, with approved permitting from regulators. Plans for another site
Pre-financed projects
Projects on gas lines with effectively endless gas flow
Significant financial backers
Cons:
Plans on how to build modular LNG
Plans to just reach financial close in 2015!
Not fully licensed
No gas assets
Projects in very expensive economies in which to do business
This company doesn't look like it will be able to produce LNG/ Revenue for at least four/five years
EWC:
Market Cap: $600m, Net Assets: $600m, Sales $200m, Net Profit $20m
Strategy: Fully integrated energy company with control of the entire value chain - excluding Mr Elliott's EPC element.
LNG plant development cost = US$90m/MTPA
Pros
315MW up and running contributing circa $20m in net profit
8MW up and running
400MW, Paid for and delivered. BOP to be paid for
Significant gas assets proven. In my opinion significant gas assets also in the ground and unproven.
LNG export facility - 70% (ballpark) paid for and complete
LNG import facility - 40% (ballpark) paid for and complete
Other immaterial projects for the purpose of this discussion
Flexibility of fuel supply, from a purchasing and sales perspective. I think this is a crucial point versus long term off take agreements
The ability to roll out modular LNG using internally generated cash flow in the medium to long term
Cons
Significant political risk - doubts over ability to export LNG
Key man risk
Lack of final round of financing
Strategy of building before financing making progress very slow
Obviously EWC's management has over promised and under delivered over the years but it is hard to argue with the progress in the past 18 months. Once the taps start to flow in Indonesia what will the market make of this company? LNG has also been in business for 10 years trying to do this, with the market only responding now, and this response is based on approvals, permits and promises of capital.
It would be good if somebody who has done the research could do a SOTP valuation for EWC.
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