Excellent post in "setting the record straight" writer.I'll give...

Excellent post in "setting the record straight" writer.

I'll give a certain dr the benefit of the doubt in not being a downramper, and that they are just seeking reasons for why the sp is where it is (even though he/she obviously has done little research themselves)

I've been thinking of trying to understand this myself. Why is the sp so low, when there are analyst reports estimating company value at $3+

Here is my current thoughts (basically on why I think the sp is at 90c, not $3)

1) I ascribe no value to the 1ml line currently and for a subsequent amount of time, the reason is due to low margins, heavy competition, and whilst the ceo is confident of selling all 40M per annum for a lowish profit of AUD$4M I will be more conservative, and say it will break even or be of no benefit to the SP.

2) Whilst most holders believe the sp to be significantly undervalued, it did quadruple in price from August to October, when the market woke up to the fact the IA agreement with SA was a major achievement. I'll assume this was the catalyst, not any 1ml news. In addition the general market conditions were strong. Since then I believe we have had many profit takers (exhibit A - boris the bear who I believe still holds but made enough cash to go live comfortably overseas, btw well done!!) as well as people still selling spp shares and recent general market wobbles.

3) Whilst the IA agreement is a major achievement, and I believe will set the company up to reach the lofty heights everyone predicts, I think this is the major issue that we don't as yet have a definitive sales agreement. Until we have one with Sanofi which at least matches our expected sales of RTF's the company should still be considered speculative. I think it is very unlikely that SA would pull out of a sales deal with UNI, but I think it is quite possible that the sales agreement could be slower to ramp up the unit sales that we expect (in time and volume). But having said that there may be just as good a chance that the ramp up is quicker and larger then we expect. Again this is the speculative element.

Catalysts for future company and sp growth

Nasdaq listing - I don't think there will be any initial huge rise, but I'd be happy with $1-1.20 once listed.

Unifill Select - This is the major item that the market has shrugged its shoulders to, but imo is a massive piece of news.

Other Pharmas - If we get details on the exclusion list, or definitely if we sign with another Pharma not competing with Sanofi, which I think is reasonable by the end of the fy.

Anyway, I'm still slowly accumulating, so until I get my fill (sorry for the pun) I will just accept any sp weakness as a cheaper buy in. Happy New Year all.... ;)