Are we in a bull trap?Googling the length of US bear markets I...

Are we in a bull trap?
Googling the length of US bear markets I landed on seeking alpha table listing 26 US bear market lengths were noted from 1929 onwards. The average there was 289 days. 6 past bear markets were 100 days or shorter. In total 9 were six months or less. 17 (65%) were shorter than 365 days. No permutation I could find got to averages as long as 17 months. While some are this long, do further double checking if this is a key piece of information in your investing thesis. Careful selection of the start and end period can get the average up over one year but getting an average as high as 17 months takes rather selective calculations. On the other side, from 1929, nearly a quarter of the time the bear markets noted didn't even make it past 100 days. There is a distinct chance we just had one of the short bear periods that do sometimes occur.

I did some correlations between lithium stocks a month or two ago. Many were extremely high this year so the sector was moving as one rather than a lot of company specific movements. If this is the case, to call lithium in a bear trap, you really need to make that same call for a wide range of lithium companies. While a number may have had a down-channel, many have clear up-side breakouts from this in the last few weeks. Unless many of these bigger lithium companies retrace significantly in the very near term, the bull trap theory doesn't work for them. IMO I think there is a low probability of a big lithium company bull market combined with a mid-smaller company bear market is pretty low. If the bigger companies stay strong, its basically winding a spring for GT1 to do a massive jump at some stage. This could be a 20-50% gain on a price sensitive announcement.

Fundamentally, for many industries and products demand is flat or decreasing. I haven't seen a single forecast that has EV growth going negative. I haven't seen a single forecast showing even 10% or lower growth in EV's. Every single thing (Goldman included) is pointing towards significant demand increases. Its fundamentally difficult to be in a bear market or remain in a bear market long if lithium demand is growing as strongly as it is.