an objective discussion

The stock has lost momentum. Before 'black tuesday'.

So naturally, it's recovery from 'black tuesday' wont be as hard and fast as those that were going along great guns prior to the correction.

Can't see that changing until there in a significant announcement that causes a re-rating of the company.

So riding on ever 1c here or there is useless at this point. If you believe the good news (plural) is coming in the months and year and years ahead, then this is simply a great chance to stock up before the next shift in momentum.

If you don't think Smyth can deliver, then there is not much point being in this stock, it has come to a bit of a stand still.

That is the way I see it. I hold, as I believe a re-rating is coming. I am not holding my breath though.

I am, however, greatful for the chance to stock up again at very cheap prices. Provided the stock rises from this point, I would look back and say 'wow, thank you US of A!".

I just look forward to the stock regaining some strong buying support.

I only have three CVI specific concerns (e.g. not including recession, bears, crashes, buildings being blown up):

1. Delays spanning over the course of 2008 and beyond. Could see a lot of impatient people exit over the year in search of better opportunities. Have already had some delays, though MS has generally delivered on everything so far. Just waiting for one of the big ones. The $100m was a very big one in most peoples opinions, but at the end of the day, it was just the limo... we are still waiting to catch a sneak of the rock star it is carrying!

B. Failure to close on the deals that are in the pipeline. It could happen, and I believe that is why there hasn't been a flood of buyers based purely on the potential we all know exists and MS's excitement and reassurance that it is coming. We can never really know how close it is, or if it is happening. That is the punt getting in early, uncertainty. But that punt will pay off if MS and co deliver, so the reward for being in now could be quite high indeed. Most should know this. If they don't, they shouldn't be tipping money in to speculative stocks in the first place.

III. Market not reacting to what we consider are great announcements (e.g. Kwanza permits). There was a time where we would have seen 50, 60, 70 cents on such an announcement, all be it from a starting block in the 30's. Now? Might not give the instant gratification some are expecting, which in turn would see people sell on the news for a small percentage gain (taking a small loss maybe if they bought at the top), 'capping' the run we would love to see the stock have.


Those are my concerns. Like I say, I still hold and am optimistic, though not naive to the risks and possible short comings of CVI.

Opinions welcome.

Sometimes it helps to thrash out some concerns, and discuss the likelyhood of some of the potential downside.