An Ode to FAR....., page-44

Well, FAR belted that out of the park! Great work, Misfits, you have done everyone here a great service by dismantling LTA's argument.

As a former corporate affairs manager - read "company flak" - I can tell you that FAR would assume any correspondence they issue would be made public, whether or not it was intended as such. You have nowt to fear, Misfits, FAR will be quite relaxed about it.

There remain some huge disconnects in our current situation.

The biggest is between the hard information (330m barrels, etc) and the rhetoric ("bumper with more to come", "barely scratched the surface of what could be a wonderful hydrocarbon province" etc). The reason is obvious - tight hole; the effect is to throw a web of doubt over nervous shareholders trained to deal with fact ahead of innuendo. This, IMO, is a rare instance in which the rhetoric will prove a more accurate forecast than the 'facts'.

The other disconnect is of course the SP, which at seven cents reflects a FAR share as being a direct proxy for oil priced at today's level. In fact a FAR share is in effect a faux futures contract which should be valued at the 2021 (or thereabouts) OP. The market struggles with that, all the more so of course when the size of FAR's resource is totally unknown to it. An oil major won't struggle with it at all; it's business model depends on taking a very long view. In four months (three wells) to ten months (six wells) time, FAR's resource base - and prospective resources - will be much more certain. If oil is still at $20-30, the market disconnect is likely to continue. But the predators will be taking a whole different view of our value.

As we await what is likely to be another disappointing 'milestone' tonight, can I again commend Coit on his/her post today. It is mandatory reading for all members.

OOO