Hi Egeria ....
Thank you for your knowledgeable input into the way the refinancing is likely to go forward;
.....
”at the end of the day it is really just another mining project with the key issue at play being market risk.”..
Market risk
is what it comes down to, which is why funding the undeveloped Pilganoora project in 2017 came with a 15% interest ‘risk penalty’.
But Altura is now built and has been achieving good production rates, (the last two quarters), and James Brown said - back in May- the project was now considered to be “substantially de-risked.”
Also since the PALA etc loan notes were issued, interest rates have come down considerably .
The global lithium market is currently down but I expect bankers have an eye to the long term, and recent reports such as the one from an ‘expert’, Rodney Hooper, saying current supply will only support VW and Tesla until 2023 (
40648490), and on the worsening environmental issues affecting Chilean lake supplies, plus those on America’s interest in securing more lithium will hopefully also mitigate concerns regards LT risk.
Altura, early in the piece, set up a Stage 2 plan that’s ready to go when the time is right . I think this will mitigate risk as well.
Securing advance notice of new customers for Stage 2 ( a follow on from recent marketing trips? ) along with better prices are possibly most important of all, but I also think the recent announcement a reliable water supply has been confirmed, enough to support Stage 2 - is an important factor to potential financiers.
And those financiers don’t necessarily have to be Australian banks ?
Cornerstone holder, Shanshan, has an investment relationship and shareholding in the giant Chinese entity CMOC which in July fully acquired a major metals trading house, IXM (ex Richard Dreyfus) t
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...fus-metals-unit-for-518-million-idUSKCN1UK23V
(For anyone interested here’s the way IXM operates
39931156.)
Also Azure has said in relation to its recent Sydney expansion and Natixis intentions there are opportunities for
“tapping into sizeable private equity war-chests along with the east coast’s two other growth markets: resources and infrastructure which are two areas where Natixis wants to boost its market share in the next two years.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...e/news-story/54b914fa193bfb65ca8054100925f6fb
Azure might even recommend that Natixis re-finances Altura until conditions improve?
Whoever it is that is looking at the company now ( hopefully several parties) as already said, I hope Altura will support the refinance process by ;
-making sure the September quarterly results shine,
- announcing some tasty exploration results as a result of the agreement signed on August 8 with
Sayona.
- consolidating customer approval/intent to invest in some way.
- other activities?
Also PS
@zoomyjeff I genuinely appreciate the appreciation but, as often is the case, it is the quieter contributors who do most of the work. I just play with words a bit more ‘noisily’ and shuttle the research from people like
@Sungar up to the surface time after time, and rely on those like you and
@tritonboat and
@Dr_Manhattan and Egeria and so many others ( than you all) for the solid fundamental stuff....
Plus, in my opinion the technical cues from
@Saragian and recently @Jako8557’s lines ‘in the sand’ here are invaluable base on experience of these chartists.
And I enjoy stitching things together and playing with the words but, as I said to Rupfel when I first started to be ‘noisy’ here I certainly would not recommend anybody invest in this company until some technical strongholds have been secured unless they are extremely confident and prepared to take the risk .
Cheers
(20min delay)