You've hit the nail on the head with the summary @sabine. Now as...

You've hit the nail on the head with the summary @sabine.
Now as to why I still follow and choose to contribute, as I've said before I think the company has done well to get to where it is despite a few unsavoury choices along the way. I can somewhat appreciate, what looking back now seem to be bad decisions. At the time the Co was eager to get the project developed as the market supported healthy margins and they had what appeared to be reputable companies backing them.

Going onto the refinance, I think they will get there, be it a new bond, banking club or some mix of senior debt, subordinated debt and equity.
As you say there will be banks out there that will look past some points but may struggle with others, that's why Azure was appointed to increase the pool of potential investors, whoever they might be. As you say there are a couple of names on the register who are deeply imbedded in the ev supply chain and have deep pockets. Ganfeng has spread its risk somewhat across multiple producing assets so i wouldnt rely on them too much. Shanshan as you say is still to show its hand, equity stake aside, they are likely working their way up the chain. They have a decent reputation, capital to boot, and as far as we know haven't invested in any other lithium producer. Again this is a wait and see.

At the end of the day, Ajm is still running a profitable operation as long as the company continues to make sales. Any reduction in interest will help margins further. This is something banks will model once they decide what an appropriate risk vs reward (interest rate) is. Similarly, any uptick in pricing and change in sentiment will go a long way in securing a decent refinance. Let's not forget there is still time, it doesn't have to be done this month or the next. 6 months whilst not ideal, can be achieved.

What I found interesting back at the time of the March quarterly was AJM realizing prices below others, PLS, Min, Gxy and has since held those prices flat while the others have converged. Perhaps this was a sweetener to keep the offtakers happy at the time. The quality of product has been demonstrated by ongoing shipments, regardless of who is taking the product.

Now as to why I no longer hold, the refinancing risk, single asset risk, uncertainty around lionergy, ganfengs ramp up, background geopolitical noise slowing ev uptake and hurting lithium pricing allround. The mix of these factors is just too close to call for me. I will follow this closely and am happy to continue a civil discussion.

It is not in my interest to darken anyone's day I'm simply trying to offer an unbiased view and insights into what I think the challenges might be. Ofcourse many won't agree and that's fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion, that's what this forum is for.

Aimo