An unholy Trinity: USD 125m < 10 mths to resolve....., page-278

I,m not posting this as a reply to any of the  trolls currently invading this forum,as many of them seem to be exhibiting the behaviour of paid trolls who will get reward for each reply to their incessant posting.Probably paid by Macquarie so that Macquarie bank can accumulate at their "price target" of 4c.

Anyway, my very amateur laymans take on AJM,s current situation is outlined below, figures are only very approximate as I,m going from memory of approx. figures in announcements, but it looks to me as if AJM should be just alright even at current low lithium prices, and if demand and hence prices improve(or production increases) the situation gets much better.

Currently producing approx. 17000t pcm

Costs of approx. $390 pcm, selling for $600 pcm=17000 times US$210 = US$3,570,000 profit pcm
times 12 months =US$42,840,000 per annum(excluding interest or capital repayments)
times exchange rate approx 1.47 A$ to 1US $ = Approx 63,000,000 per annum profit excluding interest and capital costs.

Interest 15% on A$191m= A$28,650,000,which would appear to leave a surplus of A$34million each year after paying interest,which should be more than enough to keep the lights on and start paying off debt until lithium prices recover..This is based on current rock bottom prices just above AJM,s floor price.

If prices recovered to say US$750 per tonne, at nameplate of 220k per year that would be an additional A$48 million per annum ie after paying interest a surplus of 34m plus 48m = A$82m per year,enough to pay off the capital in less than 2.5 years.
Maybe my logic is flawed, but it looks to me as Altura should survive,and any pick up in lithium prices will make dramatically increase future profitability.And if the debt gets refinanced at sensible interest levels, then things get even better.