An Up Front...

Biogen agreed to pay US$300 million upfront and as much as a further US$410 million in milestone payments for BMS-986168, a Phase-2 ready drug in development for progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP).

See: (Hottod here)

While I'm still not inclined to believe the cards will fall in favour of a licence: I just don't think a Pharma will hand us big bucks to parlay NNZ 2591 (possibly the superior to the NNZ 2566 molecule, and certainly superior in the bioavailability stakes) into a gen 2 competitor.


So my leaning is to a buy-out - let's park that. I try to look beyond my assumptions and biases yada yada....


The quote above from a favoured correspondent makes a simple evidenced based assertion (read that post it's a cracker...btw) about the potential size of a deal.


And I want to pare it back to one key figure and ask what are reasonable projections to our share price?


Premise: Treagus delivers a US $300 million up front - stop there - let's say it is a licence after all...my assumption is that means that NEU gets a payment of approximately AUD $390 million. And for that, Trofinetide is with a partner, promises of royalties....etc.


If NEU had that AUD $390 million in the bank, disregarding, for now, the promise of future success and royalties, what would you put the share price at?