TFC (ASX) An Updated Analysis

Originally posted by Lies&damnlies ↑

Good long term analysis Roy.

My only problem is that the shorter's are not in the least bit concerned about the long term. Since December 2014 there have been 5 completed high-low swings selling into highs from 1.70-1.80s and buying back into lows 1.20-1.30s. The intervals between each high is roughly 4-5 months apart. Damn good profits in reaped in the smaller time frame of 2-3 months from high to low.

Currently we are past the middle of the 6th hi-low swing from a high 1.70 to so far a low of 1.42 with I expect more lower prices to come. If the US markets (which are on fire ) go through a 5-10% correction soon (which I can see happening within weeks or months) then amazing bargains could appear in TFC's SP.

TFC is a better company than it was in December 2014 and yet their play continues because it works. They are dragging down the SP because of their action. From Dec 2014 then 100EMA line has been steadily falling.

For the life of me I can't see why they should stop for foreseeable future.

cheers Lies

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Thanks Lies. It was you that got me onto trading 25% of my holdings to take advantage of the large price fluctuations. Thanks for that, as it has been a very successful strategy for me.

I agree that the shorters will continue driving these large price fluctuations, but I would think their influence will gradually decline as TFC continues to improve in quality and value, and the market becomes more aware of its strengths.

One of my conclusions from my analysis is that, as the net asset value and the net tangible asset value keeps improving as it has over the last three years at least, the average price (100 or 200 days as you prefer) will go up just to keep the same discount. If the discount decreases, which I think it will as the quality improves, the average price will go up at a higher rate than the rate of increase in net asset value. This could still take a year or two, but I would think the upward trend in average should be clearly apparent before then.

In the meantime, I agree we should take advantage of the price actions that we are seeing, and to which you explain so well.