A good start would be to refer to the Scoping Study and particularly the NPV. That NPV was calculated using Platts long term forecast of US$89/t. The Scoping Study didn’t include the latest resource upgrade and resource to be later included. So, value is at least equal or better than the NPV. Which is not necessarily the market value and therefore the SP if divided by shares on issue.
I think it highly likely that the PFS will show a significantly better NPV. Maybe way over $500m. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it $700m or more if the Platts forecast gets upgraded and if production is planned to be higher than the PFS.
So, my view is that the SP should be around 3 times current value minimum, then plus plus as finance etc obtained. So $1.80 share plus plus. But that isn’t TO value or fair price.
Now my assessment may be way out so do your own research. All constructive feedback and opinions welcome.
Analysis and comments, page-21
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