Reflection & Expectations The year has seen visible changes with...

Reflection & Expectations

The year has seen visible changes with our company in both name and behaviour. The company has attempted to rebuild and rebrand following the disastrous decision to enter a JV with BBI and the company’s appalling history and track record. The bitterness and distrust felt by minority shareholders lingers but, for some, there is now a sense of hope that Red Hawk may actually return potential value to shareholders. Unfortunately, a minority will continue to constantly spew negativity and continue developing conspiracy theories but that is their choice. There has been lots of great work done by many minority shareholders in the past that has helped us get to the position we are now in. Today’s position is arguably better than 1 year ago, 2 years ago etc. Isn’t it?

This year has seen the termination of the BBI JV Agreement and what appears to be the end of BBI with RH. NC and Wooly are no longer on the scene much to minority shareholders delight. The company has changed its name to Red Hawk Mining and employed new MD. The company has developed a plan (which it has shared with shareholders) to get our IO to market. The company has attempted to engage with shareholders through webinars and road show. The company has weeded out and right sized the Board (there is only one other that should be gone for her role in getting the old BBI JV over the line). A comprehensive Scoping Study has been released along with new resource analysis. The company is currently working on the PFS which is planned to be released in a matter of weeks (Q1,2024). The company has successfully raised the capital required to complete the PFS.

So, what are shareholders expectations moving forward? I sense some frustration that the share price does not reflect the company value given the pace of change and plans for shipping our IO on 2025. That’s not far away and we should be seeing lots of activity next year confirming key milestones and activities are ticked off along the way.

Focus must currently be on getting the PFS completed. Next reporting is the Quarterly Report due end of January. Then PFS maybe February or March (hopefully not last week of March, lol). Then it’ll be full steam ahead with the DFS/BFS due to be released July or August.

What is expected in the PFS? Improved key metrics for a start (Scoping Study metrics were good but I suspect the PFS will be substantially better). The PFS is likely to have revised and improved the road haulage operation and may well have factored in higher tonnage rates than the Scoping Study. I think RH will want to take full advantage of the likely high IO price and move much quicker to ramp up to 3mtpa with plans to increase above 3mtpa to maybe 4+mtpa within 3 years. We should also hear about plans for the Red Dog Hwy up to the RH turn off. I hope the PFS will also show key metrics at current IO pricing as well as the Platts long term forecast. Can’t wait to see the revised NPV figures.

Moving back a step. We can hope that the Quarterly will include that discussions with potential ports at Cape Preston East and West are ongoing. Also that Port Hedland discussions are firming and confirming that RH can get port space allotment.

There is a lot to look forward to moving forward IMO. After the PFS we should start to see numerous announcements as longer lead time activities commence and various approvals are granted. Many will need to be in place or well underway pre DFS for commencement of operations in 2025.

The above could all be upended by a third party deciding to take an interest in Red Hawk by acquisition (or JV although I think JV unlikely). Then it’s really up to TIO and OCJ to accept or reject. There is no guarantee that any third party will take an interest in RH or, if interested, be prepared to pay the price tag required for a successful acquisition.

Interesting and exciting times ahead. Full steam to production or third party offer.

My analysis may be wrong so do your own research. Comments and other points of view are welcome.