There are four reasons let me strongly optimistic A2M.
1.NZ reserve bank have cut the rate three times fron June,Now AUD/NZD about 1.09(Australia is the biggest market for A2M,so devalued NZD is very good for the A2M)
2.a2 infant formula Sales for first 2 months FY16 estimated at ~AU$13 million(this just in Australia,very high demand),compare double growth with the same period for last year.I supposed the total revenue for just formula in FY16 about 70million.By the way, the NZ compamy Synlait,which produce the infant fomular and A2 whole milk powder for A2,has growth 50% production capacity fron this September.
3.In June 2015 has launched A2 whole milk powder ,In August has launched A2 ice cream.The milk powder is very very popular for chinese cutomer.This is very good product,the company caught the market demond.
4.I have been to Melbourne,foundA2 fresh milk was sold in ALDI. A2 is the only brand non ALDI independent brand of fresh milk in the ALDI.This will help A2 continue to expand the market share of fresh milk。
But there also have weakness and treat for A2M.
1.A2 is a light property company.All the product are made from other company like fomula,milk powder,ice cream.A2 like a brokers, it does not produce anything.All products are made by OEM company.That help A2 reduce the cost of a lot of financial and operational risks,but also reduce the profit.
2. United Kingdom and the United States market is far weaker than expected, especially in United Kingdom.A2 has entered the United Kingdom market for more than two years,spend at least NZ$20million.But the revenue is still low,not only low,but also too slow.In FY15,the total revenue for United Kingdom and the United States market got less nz$2million.Also, A2 still need to invest at least 10 million to explore these two markets for next year.If FY16 British and American markets continued losses, that will cause drag down the A2 annual report.
3.A2's patent expires.
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