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Analysis of the EAP, page-929

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    @Lopez

    Yes, when the ICUs are overwhelmed, the death rate will be higher. That was the experience in China & Italy. I'm not so sure about NYC.
    Some of the cities in the US collect and publish detailed Covid19 related statistics which give us an insight into where the higher infection/hospitalization rates will lead. I looked at some of the stats for the City of Plano (a suburb of Dallas/Fort Worth) because there is a small hospital (114 beds) currently recruiting there. Plano is mostly located in Colin County with a small part in Denton County. On the surface the stats for Plano show that they still have reasonable ICU/ventilator capacity. But they also show that Covid19 related ventilator utilisation is up 25% in 7 days (200 - 251). That points to a huge surge in severe cases. There no reason to think other parts of Dallas/Fort Worth are not facing a similar challenge.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2292/2292458-26049372da425d68f835cf4fc4abd516.jpg




    Last edited by sailnyssa: 12/07/20
 
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