Hey all,
It didn't look good at first as straight away I saw 0.006 and wasn't happy. Took me a while to get over that! Here's some bad and good points from today's 2 announcements I was thinking about today, and then a comparison with another ASX biotech that was in a similar position to DXB 12 months ago.
Bad points:
- Still can't figure out why they raised capital now when they may be able to raise at a higher level over the next 6 months or so. Maybe they can't be taken seriously overseas with less than $1m cash?
- 0.006 is a low price compared to where it spiked 6 months ago but still reasonable given wwap over the last month or so.
- No mention of a cornerstone investor taking up any of the 333m shares, but we may see a s.603 or s.604 notice soon after 4th Feb – would need someone to breach about 90m shares (5%) for this to happen. May also see a change of sub holder which will show whether the 2 big guys put money in or were diluted from not doing so.
- So important whether the 333m shares have gone to holders in for the long haul or those happy to sell at 0.007, 0.008, 0.009 etc for a quick profit. Dimerix only traded about 700m shares for the whole of the last 12 months so will be hard to get through 333m shares!
Good points:
- 333m shares is not too much dilution compared to what the NDF research report was suggesting which was 1 billion shares at 1c. I don't believe currently there is much extra the company can do with $10m than it could do with $3m, so a good result imo. NDF research report target prices need to be updated to reflect this raise.
- The preso to investors mentions 1.5-2m to be raised so they have clearly had interest at the higher level (also confirmed in the 1st annc today).
- Once the dust settles Dimerix will be in a much better position with enough cash for people to forget about any more cap raisings in the short term.
- Importantly, todays preso shows the top holders have not sold any shares in the period from October except for J&L Peterson who look like they’ve sold just 3m shares.
- Todays preso highlighted that the interim update showed strong evidence of safety and likely efficacy.
- Also some new statements in the preso re opportunities for big pharma deals (Chemocentryx – Dec 2016)
- Something I hadn’t noticed before, very interestingly Dimerix own patent #….450 which seems to cover the very drug that Chemocentryx is developing. I am gonna check this to confirm.
What is everyone else thinking?
I had a look back at Innates history over the last 12 months and couldn't help notice some similarities between Dimerix and where Innate was 12 months ago. Here's the 2 presentations, Innates is from April 2016:
Innate:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160418/pdf/436l29g99hrkrn.pdf
Dimerix:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170125/pdf/43fj1gdjszshbr.pdf
Yes they are obviously targeting different disease groups but some key similarities are:
- Both companies targeting an unmet need
- Innate started from a low market cap, Dimerix is low now.
- Innate had around $3m cash at March 2016 prior to the share price taking off, DXB will have around $2.7m at Feb
- Similar potential annual market revenue being targeted - DXB US$3-5b, Innate - US$4b
- Both in phase 2, with strong recruitment patient interest
- "Strong evidence of safety and likely efficacy" – both presentations state this exact phrase
- Major pharma involved early for both companies
- Both with strong intellectual property focus
- Similar shareholder structure in both, – 1 major shareholder holding over 20% and top 20 shareholders holding just over 50%
Anyway, finally this was a new part of the presentation today that I thought was very important, worth taking note of:
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45.0¢ |
Change
0.040(9.76%) |
Mkt cap ! $247.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
41.5¢ | 45.5¢ | 41.5¢ | $820.5K | 1.856M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 34678 | 44.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
45.0¢ | 80601 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 4597 | 0.435 |
1 | 10000 | 0.430 |
2 | 72000 | 0.425 |
3 | 55000 | 0.420 |
3 | 39935 | 0.415 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.450 | 80601 | 3 |
0.455 | 41625 | 3 |
0.460 | 163000 | 4 |
0.465 | 18000 | 1 |
0.470 | 50000 | 1 |
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