analysis, or emotion> - you choose

This terrible proposal of Rudd's won't happen. it will not come become law.

For it to come into law, ALL of the following need to all happen. Not just one of them. ALL of them:

Labor take it as a platform to their next election

AND

Labor WIN the next election

AND

Labor GAIN seats in the Senate, such that they do not need other parties' support, OR

Labor gets the support of either the opposition, OR Greens and conservative independents.

(bear in mind they could not even get the ETS passed, and that had support of Greens and half of the Liberal Party! What chance have they got of passing this controversial and radical proposal?)


Now, there is no doubt this has spooked the markets. Perhaps rightly so - it is a crazy proposal. But it is a long way from becoming law. A LONG LONG way. And Rudd is taking a shellacking in the polls at the moment - down to 39% approval in Newspoll last night on telly.

So, before people do anything silly (and, if you HAVE to sell due to margin calls, that is a different story), consider WHY you bought ESG in the first place, and coolly think about how likely it is that this proposal with become law.

Then consider what this price weakness of ESG might prompt.

After seeing Santos buy in to PEL 238 for the gas, and ESG itself (for reasons we are yet to see...?), don't you want to stick around to find out what happens in the final act?

I do.

Y