TXN texon petroleum ltd

Disclosure: Patersons Securities was Joint Lead Manager to the...

  1. 2,614 Posts.
    Disclosure: Patersons Securities was Joint Lead Manager to the $14m Placement
    completed in June 2010. It was paid a fee for this service.

    The Initial Production (IP) rate of 1,202bopd and 0.782mmscf/d compared
    favorable to results in the region, with Swifts wells flowing at 1,134bopd
    and 775bopd.
    ?h The well is being produced on a restricted basis through a 16/64" choke,
    which makes comparison with our modeled unrestricted type-curve
    difficult. The announced production rate is encouraging and inline with our
    expectations however it will be important to monitor the ongoing
    performance of the well. By way of comparison, AUT has achieved an
    overall 30-day average of 940boepd (on a 12:1 basis), however its more
    recent restricted wells Luna #1H and May #1H achieved 30-day averages
    of 888boepd and 722boepd, respectively. We would expect the results at
    AUT's acreage to be higher given the high productivity of this area of the
    shale.

    Impact
    ?h Production to date from the well equates to revenue of ~US$1.8m at
    US$90/bbl (the average over the period) and US$7.60/mscf (allowing for
    calorific uplift), of which TXN has a 61.6% NRI.
    ?h Application of restricted flow rates is commonplace with major operators
    reporting early positive signs for higher EUR's.
    ?h TXN stands to benefit from the successful appraisal of a total of 4,516 net
    acres of Eagle Ford across its 2 focus areas. We currently risk the
    Leighton/Sutton and Mosman/Rockingham projects at 30% and 20%
    respectively, suggesting ~4 times upside from the successful appraisal of
    its Eagle Ford shale and full de-risking with time.
    ?h We maintain our BUY recommendation with a price target of
    $1.05/sh. TXN is underpinned by reserves and production from its
    Leighton Olmos project area, with a further 7 development wells planned
    for 2011. TXN has a busy drilling schedule across its Olmos acreage with 7
    wells planned, 3 additional exploration prospects and one additional Eagle
    Ford shale. Looking ahead, key catalysts will include the completion of the
    fracc and production results from MR#1 and the results of Olmos
    development wells plus further exploration drilling. The market appears to
    be heavily risking the acreage which has been significantly de-risked
    following the recent well results.

    Disclosure: Patersons Securities was Joint Lead Manager to the $14m Placement
    completed in June 2010. It was paid a fee for this service.
 
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