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Analyst Notes and Price Targets, page-158

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Luck101

2,074 Posts.

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05/03/24

12:19

Post #: 72749660
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Originally posted by invertedva: ↑

STX is in the most dangerous position of receiving a lowball takeover for a long time. The last time was probably after the whole gas-water-contract debacle with WGO, when the rift inside the JV was out in the open, and STX didn't have the financial buffer it does now.
Reasons for an imminent takeover:
- Sell-off following SE2/3 was overdone (as 618 and others have shown).
- Management has lost some credibility in the eyes of market for the risks taken around SE2/3 (which I don't hold against them) and insider trading (which happened IMHO but he extent of which has been vastly exaggerated).
- The next major re-rate announcement is probably the next quarterly (due end of April) when Walyering cashflows hit the books, demonstrating how profitable it is.
- And it's probably still a few months until a potential change to the domestic gas policy, with MIN probably having the best inside information about when and how this will happen.
- And then, as always, there is the fact that STX's ABN appeared in MIN's takeover documents for NWE, and MIN recently sold some lithium stocks to raise some cash (but this is more of a side point, given there are several potential suitors).

It's the perfect window for a predator to wait a month, get the 30 day VWAP low, and still have time to complete the acquisition before any new drilling results or policy changes are announced. It would be sad, and somewhat ironic given what happened to TPD, if STX get taken out (or someone acquires a controlling stake) before the full benefits of Walyering flow through to the bottom line.

We can only pray SN pulls another rabbit from the hat in the short- to medium-term.

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And our banker values STX at 21c.Ouch.

STX Price at posting: 21.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 20.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $579.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
20.5¢	20.5¢	19.5¢	$399.3K	1.993M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
76	3701360	19.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
20.0¢	180037	11

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
56	2446159	0.195
45	2155575	0.190
31	1166062	0.185
35	1171864	0.180
8	886261	0.175

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.200	789457	22
0.205	974928	21
0.210	3285122	16
0.215	249667	11
0.220	749039	23

Last trade - 11.07am 18/06/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 20.0¢		Change 0.000 ( 0.60 %)
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Analyst Notes and Price Targets, page-158

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