Some interesting stats from the UPD Prospectus:
- 17m households move per year with average 3 people per household for 51m people moving
- the average spend for a move is US$9,000 on the full basket of goods and services
That’s $153 billion per year! Or more than 10% of the entire Australian economy just in US moves. Much much bigger end market than for CAR/SEK/REA put together.
UPD states it is targeting all 15 verticals in that $153b, not just insurance.
UPD currently processes about 20%* of all moves with >99% customer retention, and is heading to a 35% near term target
(* 16% in Q3 last year so allowing for some growth)
Their platform becomes the portal, not just for insurance, but for purchases of all the other goods and services involved in moving.
That’s why UPD is currently misunderstood and misvalued. People are focusing on the business being essentially pre-revenue at the moment (only $1.6m cash receipts last quarter). It has always been the stated management plan since IPO to build market share and start to roll out Business Product pilots in 2017 and then start monetisation 2018. Management have smashed every target they’ve set out since IPO.
The business IPO’d in December 2015 at 2% market share at 20c.
Since then there’s been three hugely successful Business Prroduct pilots in
- insurance 90% uplift in purchase rate
- full service moving >500% uplift
- pay TV/internet >200% uplift
Market share has akso grown from 2% to ~20% -up 10x. This is the monetizable asset.
But the share price has only risen 5x to $1.
$3.50 12 month price target, mark my words. Over time much much more.
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