Well, according to my calendar, it's been 30 trading days since...

Well, according to my calendar, it's been 30 trading days since the post-SE sell-off.
We've just had MIN announce they've sent a 250PJ gas plant project for environmental approval. They wouldn't do this unless they were confident of policy change as getting halfway through the process and then having to change course will waste significant time. Don't forget who McGowan now works for. Also, from the recent MIN results press conference, Ellison is keen to get his gas plans moving quickly.
Beach is also 'up and about' after the cost blowouts on the LNG plant depressed the price last year. Macquarie has released a bullish broker report.
At the end of this month, a full quarter of cashflows from Walyering will appear in the company accounts.
And in June, we may see changes to the domestic gas policy, which will be a major catalyst (if it happens).
In short, this is a real danger period with the 30 VWAP at a low. Also, a predator can get the takeover process underway before any major catalysts are expected (unless SN pulls a rabbit from the hat in the coming weeks).
Takeover speculation should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it will be either a very boring month or a very interesting one, I think.