PDN 10.8% $10.40 paladin energy ltd

Hi GunnersAnalysts as usual all have different targets. Credit...

  1. 127 Posts.
    Hi Gunners

    Analysts as usual all have different targets. Credit Suisse America/Canada report 15 April 2011 has OUTPERFORM Target price (C$) 5.25

    March Qtr (3Q11) Production Report Largely In-Line; LHU-III Entering Commissioning Phase

    Event: PDN reported total March-Qtr (3Q11) production of 1.402Mln lbs U3O8. Production at Langer Heinrich (LHU) of 0.796Mln lbs U3O8 was below our estimate (0.941Mln lbs) while Kayelekera production of 0.606Mln lbs was better
    than expected (0.559Mln lbs) averaging 73% of nameplate design in quarter (93% in March). Sales volumes were in-line with production levels (1.396Mln lbs vs. 1.402Mln lbs) at a realized price of $66.28/lb, which was slightly above
    our expectation of $65/lb. There are no changes to our EPS estimates.

    View: In-line; LH-III slips again, but Kayelekera makes good progress. PDN signaled FY11 production guidance towards to the low-end of its 6-6.3Mln lbs range due to weather-related issues at LHU and the national diesel shortage in Malawi affecting Kayelekera production. In addition, Stage III expansion at Langer Heinrich (LH-III) has been delayed with commissioning expected in late
    June-Qtr. (vs. previous estimate of late Mar-Qtr) ? the front-end of the plant has already entered the commissioning phase. According to management, LH-III is
    now 92% complete and the LHU-IV feasibility study remains on schedule for completion in the Dec-Qtr.

    Catalyst: PDN continues to work towards running parallel initiatives at LH-III & IV and ramping up to design rates at Kayelekera. Our focus remains on PDN reaching an annual run-rate of 9Mln lbs by 2012 versus the run rate of 5.6Mln
    lbs achieved in the March-Qtr.

    Valuation: Expansion case NAVPS includes LHU-IV. Our TP of C$5.25 is based on a 50/50 weighting of 1.3x our base-case NAVPS ($3.49/share) and expansion case NAVPS(C$4.50.share). Our NAVPS includes $0.16/share for the Michelin project and $0.77/share for exploration/development properties.

    Cheers
 
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