ABN Amro rates IPL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy - With Incitec's FY09 still young the broker is shocked by the company's 31.5% profit downgrade so early in the proceedings. The broker has reduced forecast earnings by 18.5% and 24.5% in FY09-10. It's all about fertiliser, and while the stock is looking cheap the broker suggests the outlook for both fertiliser and explosives is weak. Downgrade to Hold.
Target falls from $3.45 to $2.00.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$0.22 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.87%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.10.
BA-Merrill Lynch rates IPL as Neutral, Medium Risk - At its trading update Incitec warned that FY09 profits will be down 32% on FY08 due to lower fertiliser prices, tighter margins, and lower explosives demand in the mining sector. The broker has reduced forecast earnings by 30-40% in FY09-11. Target falls from $5.00 to $2.20. The broker thinks this is cheap, but an uncertain market means a Neutral stance.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$0.42 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the BA-Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. BA-Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.99%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.97.
Citi rates IPL as Buy, High Risk - Company issued a profit warning and Citi analysts have cut their forecasts. In addition, the analysts forecast the company will have to cope with three years of negative cash flow. They have cut dividend forecasts too. Price target drops to $2.33 from $4.78. Buy rating has remained in place.
Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$0.55 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. Citi forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.40 cents. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.27.
Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform - Target $3.70 (was $5.30). Fertiliser prices continue to fall and as a result the company has again revised earnings guidance lower, which the broker has followed by cutting its earnings estimates. Despite the changes the broker remains positive on the stock and retains its Outperform rating.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$1.92 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.55%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.60.
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Hold - Management's shock profit warning has triggered some serious cutting to forecasts at Deutsche Bank. Valuation has been reduced too and with the shares seen trading at an 8% premium the analysts argue it is too early to consider buying this stock. Risks remain to the downside and the analysts see plenty of scope for more bad news. They expect the dividend to be cut. Target drops to $1.65 from $2.75 prior.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:($0.13) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately - 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.87%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.36.
UpdatedJP Morgan rates IPL as Overweight - Target $2.96 (was $4.50). Management has revised full year earnings guidance on the back of lower fertiliser prices and demand and the broker has adjusted its estimates accordingly. Despite the changes the broker sees value in the stock at current levels and so it retains its Overweight rating.
Target price is $2.96 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$1.18 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.80%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.10.
UpdatedMacquarie rates IPL as Neutral - Macquarie analysts were surprised by the timing of management's profit warning, after all we're only four months into the new fiscal year. What this means, they explain, is that management is not expecting DAP prices (that's fertiliser) to recover in the rest of the year.
FY09, FY10 and FY11 EPS estimates have been lowered by 31%, 34% and 35%respectively. Macquarie analysts have taken a more cautious approach than company management, with regards to Dyno in particular.
Price target falls to $2.33 from $3.50 prior.
Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$0.55 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.16%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.54.
UBS rates IPL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Revised guidance from management largely matches the broker's estimates and it suggests there is compelling long-term value at current levels despite current high risk levels. To reflect the upside it sees the broker has upgraded to a Buy rating.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.78 Difference:$1.22 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in September. UBS forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.99%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.14.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
IPL Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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