I still think it would be interesting to see actual figures of what happens.
In reality, what I am saying is:
If a trend (either up or down) is in place, is it likely to continue?
Or alternatively, can we just assume, based on probability, that a series of consecutive falls such as we have had recently occurs once every so often, and we just happen to be going through it now?
I suspect there is a bit more to it, as common sense suggests that at various times, such as a few weeks ago, it was a reasonably good bet that the market would fall heavily. And to me at least, common sense suggests that there is more to come. Which means that since external factors are influencing the movement of the market, we are not totally dependant on what might happen if it were totally random.
Still keen to have someone analyze the data.
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