Everyone must print this graph and hang it above t andalisa, the...

Everyone must print this graph and hang it above t andalisa, the evidence is overwhelming that it is impossible to predict or profit from short term fluctuations in share prices (ie "trading"). Over the longer run things are more interesting. The higher the PE the more likely you are to lose as this graph shows. The two digit numbers represent the year. It is very clear than in years with low PEs, stocks do very well over the next 10 years, and vise versa. This graph, published in 2000, made me a market pessimist and saved me a fortune.


From "Irrational Exhuberance" by Yale economic historian Robert Shiller.