Fred, unfortunately or fortunately, I'm not sure which yet, we live in a JIT world (Just in time) when it comes to just about everything, and I have a suspicion that in the lithium field it is going to catch many out and make the price far higher than many think.
For example, everyone knows that the Giga factory of Elon Musk is going to double production of lithium batteries literally overnight, plus there are several other 'gigafactories' being built. Is it enough for all the auto makers planning to go electric over the next few years? Probably not.
Even so, with all these gigafactories, where are the raw ingredients coming from? Ans chemical companies. Have they been ordered with the chemical companies able to produce enough? probably not.
The chemical companies that make the needed lithium hydroxide and carbonate have they ramped up production and ordered the necessary raw products? probably not.
At some point very soon, there will be a realization by some forward thinkers in the chain that they have a problem and something they have just taken for granted they could get off the shelf from the next company just isn't going to happen. If they then order everything from a supplier, and cut off supply to others, eventually they will wake up as well. Greenbushes warning should have been a wake up call, was it?
I'll bet there are plenty of companies out there that have some middle managers telling people higher up that supply isn't a problem, until it is. That point is likely next year. We just need the forward thinkers to find us, or go and find them. Hopefully some have a clue by now, but there will be lot's of car companies that just can't supply all the EV's they think they will be able to over the next 2-3 years as it becomes obvious lithium is a constraint and nobody thought about shoring up supply. (plus a few sacked middle managers for stuffing up)
And of course a way higher lithium price than now, all thanks to JIT thinking.
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