I don't think there is anything wrong with a contrary position....

I don't think there is anything wrong with a contrary position. Indeed in some ways he is right to flag his concerns.

Personally I thin the subs holder is the best news when we also consider the letter to shareholders, and my logic is this :

1) The banks will lose big-time if they appointed receivers/administrators or other forms of insolvency
2) It is unlikely that a true white knight will appear (given press speculation that many have looked in the data room and walked away
3) The letter from yesterday says from an operational perspective CNP is very much "business as usual" and in line with expectations.
4) The results of Lehman Bros overnight will be seen as a turning point (although not out of the woods entirely) in the credit crunch - expectations were for blood on the streets and there was not.

As a result, all debts from CNP would appear to be serviceable and it is just a balance sheet issue. If the banks thought the debts had no chance of being serviced they would have moved very quickly to protect their interests.

As a result for a major subs holder to now declare they have confidence in this going forward AND for their accumulation to have occured prior to today's run this acts as MAJOR support in a time of a credit crisis. It also explains how the SP felt as though it was being capped this pm.

Subject to Dow Jones performing tonight I think we will see a major gap up tomorrow and the SP move quickly toward 36- 40 tomorrow - even further if there is any other news that comes out.

I traded the stock today (but wish (in hindsight) I had kept all my overnight stock) but still have a holding which I look forward to adding to tomorrow.

In sentiment terms this is the best news we could have had and for me I believe the SP has a lot further to go.