and the winner is?, page-11

Deutsche Bank would not be loading up if they thought GXY was going out of business. Deutsche Bank administers China's takeovers and it is common for them to trade shares on the takeover targets they administer. If you were on board the Extract takeover you would know what I mean. Once the takeover is announced, as administrator, Deutsche Bank then has to announce its trades on the target.

China has a strategy to increase EV sales and needs the Jiangsu plant to process Talison's spodumene. IMO, China is under pressure to acquire a majority stake in GXY to prevent Korea from taking over GXY. If Korea thinks taking over GXY is a better deal for them than the current Sal de Vida farmin agreement then they will. If that were to happen, China would be left with surplus spodumene capacity and a lithium under supply because Korea would restart Mt Catlin (low AUD) or they could sell the Jiangsu plant to China for a hefty price to recover much of the takeover cost.