It almost seems like a lifetime ago that I started a thread about the potential market cap that PO3 could attain. At that time we were a lot less advanced than what we are today with a different BoD.
From memory, I compared PO3 to CAG, MWR and AKP and their respective market caps, which all were comparable to or exceeded that of PO3, yet IMHO were vastly inferior companies for differing reasons.
Taking a look at those companies today, CAG is still a waste of space yet with an ˜$40m cap, MWR – a company that simply doesn’t have the scalability of a PO3 IMHO (currently in TH pending a “significant” announcement) at ˜$21m , about one third of its peak market cap, and then there’s AKP.
Of these 3 comparisons, I always thought this was the most valid. Both AKP and PO3 have small, tight capital structures with a high level of insider ownership, and both companies are developing/have developed seemingly revolutionary technologies. However, that’s where the comparison ends.
AKP’s DSR tech has VERY LIMITED applications relative to that of FRG. Both companies have a similar cash position, and I’d put the PO3 BoD up against almost any BoD of an ASX-listed company. Of course, it is believed that FRG may have some role to play in our living with COVID-19. However, we are not capped anywhere near AKP.
AKP is currently capped at around $625m and PO3 around $120m – one fifth that of AKP. So when
@Checksmcgee posts, “Just need a big Ann now. Something material”, I don’t totally agree.
FRG is arguably more advanced than DSR, has a MUCH GREATER potential market than DSR, and I believe that PO3 is more advanced than AKP in achieving a milestone agreement with a multinational OEM. We also know that BP is not in favour of dilution, so expect our issued cap to remain low well into the future.
Given this comparison, at its most basic level, PO3 could appreciate
5x to reach AKP’s current market cap & still be undervalued using AKP as the comparison. This means we’re talking a share price closer to $20.
Now let’s assume that we get an OEM or 2 over the line, where is our share price going to be? We’ll then need to start using NAN – a $2bn cap company and a better comparative on an industry basis than AKP.
Looking at the chart, I believe that PO3 will have to do a little work between $3.80-$4.50, but then again, we could be trading at $5 tomorrow for no apparent reason. And if we get any form of positive announcement, we’re into double digits.
AKP trades about $300k in average daily volume. If PO3 trades $50k, it’s considered a “big” day. Just imagine what will happen to the PO3 price when it starts trading an average $300k/day.
To summarise, we’re currently priced at almost the midpoint of the $6.30 high reached almost 1 year ago and the $1.95 low reached almost 4 months ago. There is a (strong) case for PO3 to be priced significantly higher
right now than its current price given its comparison to AKP. Any report about COVID-19/ an OEM would more than vindicate my point of view.
