KGL 7.62% 9.7¢ kgl resources limited

andash progress, page-42

  1. 14,464 Posts.
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    I see some odd things in the Intersuisse report.

    Each of the three projects is given a value near or above the current market cap.
    That I agree with for Burn and Andash. Jervois is still early stage and while I think it will be worth much more than the current market cap, it is difficult to value without at least seeing some numbers from the scoping study. However management believes it is much more valuable than Burnakura and it is the reason for the acquisition.
    Burnakura was just a very valuable bonus.

    Strangely, they value Burnakura higher than Andash at 22c and 20c respectively.
    While the Burnakura valuation is in line with mine, I can’t understand their Andash valuation.
    Using FS assumptions (metals produced, recoveries, costs etc) and spot metal prices, Andash puts KGL on a prospective PE of 1.7 after allowing for 80% ownership.
    How is that worth less than Burnakura?
    They have applied similar discounts to both for risk (75% Andash and 80% for Burn.).
    Burn is longer life, but Andash is much lower cost and produces more ounces over the LOM.
    I can’t see it being worth less than $4.40 for a prospective PE of 6 considering there is ample upside from additional ore sources.
    Admittedly we don’t yet have Atkash secured but as mentioned before its too small as a stand alone mine so not much good to the owners.

    Also strange, they have Jervois running for 10 years as an open pit at 2MT/annum (again from the Oct update).
    They must be super bullish on exploration upside.
    We only have enough shallow ore currently defined for up to 4 years at 2MT (I assume 1.5Mt/annum for around 5-6 years open pit before moving to u/g where we have further resources and much more exploration upside).
    Despite their model and their forecast of $70mill/year net cash flow (surely worth at least $4-5/share) they have Jervois valued at 12c ($1.20 now) which is around half their valuation of Burn.
    I can’t make much sense of their valuations other than they look way too low on Andash and I can’t work out how they arrive at 12c on Jervois based on their cash flow assumptions.

    Gab is given zero value despite decent jorc resources near the existing plant at Burn. Zero value makes no sense.

    From their October 2011 update (pg 3) we are trading at $2 per gold equiv oz (looks about right) compared to the benchmark at $25.
    Very cheap considering our near zero cash costs at Andash should command a premium.
 
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