Does that historical chart account for inflation? I assume not,...

Does that historical chart account for inflation?

I assume not, so the number is higher than that now however I don't think it matters. I/O and many other commodities are all about supply and demand, if the I/O price went back to $10 every producer would lose money, even RIO. In that case why would they continue to export the volumes they do?

Keep in mind that Vale and FMG need somewhere between $30-40 to maintain what they are doing (how long they could maintain it would be a different question). That's a hell of a lot of I/O between those two that could be reduced if it became uneconomical.

Vale is the one that is most susceptible imo, (perhaps some FMG bias). They have large debts and will most likely have some flow on impacts to their other mines following the Samanco disaster. They have also previously stated they would consider closing their higher cost mines if they became uneconomical.

Therefore I just can't see a situation where the price of I/O falls below the marginal cost of production for long.