Andrew Twiggy Forrest buys 5 mill worth, page-70

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JabraD

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16/04/23

21:52

Post #: 67301406
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Originally posted by curis: ↑

This company would not see 2023. It is developing a drug that was previously sold by Astra Zeneca with peak sales of $1B for treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes (drug known as Byetta). That product is now of patent and sales are declining, so its a no brainer that Astra Zeneca will seriously consider to acquire an asset that their sales reps already selling, with 7 years exclusivity and potential peak sales of 500M.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals developed Byetta originally and was sold in 2012 to BMS for $5.3B (subsequently sold to Astra Zeneca). At that time there was 5 years of exclusivity left for Byetta, and not much except Byetta in the pipeline. So you do the math, whats potential value of Invex.

Company and all the insto investors would not care about retail investors and share price would not matter. There are probably two scenarious:
(a) if Astra Zeneca is comfortable with Phase 2 data that was just released, they will try to acquire it within next 12 months, somewhere between $300m - $500m USD... price will depend on how good are the corporate guys behind Invex.Could be as cheap as $4AUD per share and upto $9 AUD per share
(b) Astra Zeneca will wait for Phase3 data to come out, but in that case if positive the price of the asset will be somewhere around $1.5B USD... thats about 30x on current price;

Given this stock is fully owned by instos, it will trade at about 30-40% discount to potential acquisition price.... i.e about $300m USD in the next 12 months and close to $1B+ when data will come out positive. Prior to Phase3 release it will probably trade 600-700M USD

Its a pure corporate play and short term price is irrelevant. Instos and large investors will prefer to hold this stock than any other ASX mid cap, as the corporate deal is immune to general market sell off, the value will always be there.

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Curis do you still hold this stock. Very nice analysis

IXC Price at posting: 44.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 7.2¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $5.411M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	38792	7.2¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.2¢	79805	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	38792	0.072
1	100000	0.063
1	100000	0.062
1	150000	0.060
1	100000	0.052

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.082	79805	1
0.083	4000	1
0.085	1000	1
0.090	126146	1
0.095	100000	1

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