With that logic, you may as well go to the casino and bet on red or black.
If things look bad, and the market will generally tell you when they do, then it's best to sell out, sit on the sidelines and wait for confirmation. The market is basically saying that it is unsure if this well is commercial.....that is, the market IMO is saying this is a 50/50 chance of being commercial. That's a casino to me. And if you treat the market like a casino, then long term most ppl will go bust just like they do in a casino long term.
You say: "That's not the only choice. How about the $1 investor, who was stopped out at 70c because of swings/manipulation then has to buy back in at $1.20 ? But then he's less confident so he hangs on for a while before buying and makes sure the stock's not dropping. When's he convinced ? $1.50 ? More ?"
How about the $1 investor who stops out at 70c, watches it go down to 40c, waits for the company to release an official ASX statement saying one way or another whether it is commercial and at what rates. Do you think if they released a statement saying it's commercial tomorrow, that it would open at $1.20?? It won't. It might open at 50c and climb from there. So yes, you'll miss out on the intial gap from 40-50c, but if it's commercial and looks positive for the future, and it's now better than a 50/50 GAMBLE than buy in and enjoy the ride.
But yes, we have different opinions. I take the safer route, cos I've seen too many times the dwindling of share holder funds in a company going no where fast. Others may be happy to take the risk and play it like a casino.
To each his own.
Cheers
GDN Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
