anglo/ arm risk, page-9

Good post Ralph.

There's certainly been ample time for any number of interested JV partners to go through all the available data on the Garatau project several times over!

Arguably, the recent agenda of a one reef, lower capex start up was driven by one of the interested JVers.

As we know, X was always the one in the box seat and they are pretty much the biggest boy on the block (barring Rio and BHPB). The reference to Garatau in a recent Mick Davis presentation shows it's far from off their radar - it's also a much sounder financial play/target than going the whole hog on Lonmin.....

So, potential suitors:

1. Xstrata
2. Anglo/ARM (the neighbouring JVers)
3. Norlisk (people always are on about the Chinese but overlook their neighbours)
4. Chinese (any one of numerous players)
5. Indians (whatever the Chinese want, the Indians want equally, or more)
6. Existing PGM operators in SA - they're always talking about growing their old, expensive operations by acquisition - but doubtful they have the financial muscle imo).

Anyway who says a JV partner won't commit in any binding fashion pre the finalisation of the ARM/Anglo 'dispute' simply doesn't know or understand these deals.

Most deals in all walks of commerce are subject to a plethora of conditions precedent (CPs) - these are conditions that must be met (often within specifies timeframes) before a deal 'closes'.

If the CPs aren't met - sure, it's game over but that doesn't mean the original agreement is not binding.