anglo/nkp deal possibility?, page-6

I think it is now pretty obvious that the Plan B partner is and has always been Anglo. As both Nkwe and Anglo have confirmed that negotiations between the parties have been ongoing. As a result I believe the second BFS was also for the benefit of Anglo.

It is also pretty obvious to me that Anglo are now putting pressure on Nkwe in the form of the looming 'legal disputes' to do a deal with them instead of Xstrata.

I dare say the South African Government would also be pushing for a joint venture arrangement with Anglo instead of Xstrata.

I am fairly confident that the behind closed door discussions which i assume are currently occuring would be regarding a joint venture between Anglo and Nkwe. Even if Anglo don't think they have a legal leg to stand on, they have the deep pockets to delay any potential Nkwe/Xstrata deal for a long period. Something that Nkwe can not afford both from a cost and time perspective.

Personally i feel that Anglo have weasled their way into the frontrunner position regarding a potential joint venture or even takeover.

As a shareholder this frustrates me as the company I have invested in is now backed into a corner, however should a JV be agreed upon with Anglo i can assure you this is not a terrible outcome. Bottom line is we will keep Garatau and be able to enjoy the profits generated. This will result in a re-rate of the stock however it is important to note it is likely the terms of the JV will not probably not be as lucrative as the Xstrata deal. However as a shareholder this is a better outcome then potentially losing everything or further delays.

In regards to Tubatse I believe Nkwe/Genorah will retain some form of rights as the DRM will not want to be seen to reverse a decision made several years ago. This will not only question their credibility as a Government body but also allow other companies to make claims against previous decisions. Credibility is priceless especially considering the sums of money being invested in South Africa.

At the end of the day i think NKP will be ok. While i don't think things will turn out quite as we expected a month ago, I still believe that patient shareholders will be rewarded. My broker shares my above view and has also recommended i play this out as opposed to selling on fear.

Good luck to holders...we are in for a ride.