Plus, great time to read the 2020 scoping study again I reckon. Bit of a refresher before DFS. Get thinking about those positive changes that I think are coming
My guesses. I think we end up with production starting around Q4 2023.
Year 1 - 2024 - I am going with what I think is a modest 100 for year one. So much possibility to go straight to the 150 max based on the recent ann and commercial farm upside. But I think they keep it low to account for production issues, lower uptake from small farmers. But hell, it really wouldnt surprise me to see this at 150 in year 1. I think the local demand will be big as we see big fertilizer prices around the world.
Year 2 - 2025 - 150
Year 3 - 2026 - expansion to 300
Year 4 - 2027 - 300
Year 5 - 2028 - expansion to 550
Some bullish projections in there as it includes earlier expansions and bigger max level expansion of 550 (instead of the previous 450). I am trying to use the company facts to inform my guesses. The facts we have are: per Lindsay, he expects in the next 5 years to be consuming 375 per year to reach 3m farmers and 100 per year for the LFP. So we are at a total of 475 already. The question is does the 375 include commercial farms. Maybe / Maybe not. Plus will they export some? Either way, my guess is 550 by year 5. Plus if you look at demand forecast for EV batteries, demand expectations is really kicking in around 2025 through 2030 - see a couple of graphs below. So I dont expect that LFP 100k until later on.
I feel like my predictions are too aggressive but based on demand for both fertilizer and demand from EV batteries, it makes some sense. Maybe the better question is, can the company deliver what is required to meet that. Pretty hard going from small cap to big time producer and do the ammonia alongside it. Time will tell I guess.
Keen to hear others thoughts.
MNB Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
