Great post Cheyne.
It's been over three years since the company had the 2P Reserve certified, so it's been a long time between drinks.
Let's not forget, just after this reserve was certified, the company was in negotiations for an offtake and the market was expecting it.. Not a urea offtake of course, but gas supply. In previous interviews it was reported that the company had a binding deal worth up to 8 billion dollars with an Australian energy retailer for gas supply. This was turned down.
Urea production was always an option, but it was gas supply that seemed like the most logical path for the company..
Then they pivoted....
It was all about urea.... As you can see by the current offtake, 2,800,000,000 AUD revenue for 5 years at current prices (double that for the whole 1mtpa) and the management's decision is vindicated, given the return to shareholders over a 30+ year timeframe. The market and our 'instos' were expecting a gas offtake however, and this cost the company time, further equity raising, and as a result investors have lost patience, and that's fair enough. Our 'once bitten, twice shy' 'instos' need to absorb this urea offtake now..
As a country we are very short sighted, 'instos' need to be spoon fed, our banks don't back innovation - Australia being a quarry, and the perennial growth in the property market has made them very conservative.. We've had it way too easy for way too long, and people lack patience and investors expect the quick buck. Politicians on both sides also struggle to see beyond a political cycle....
Daelim were building Olympic Stadiums before the CBA were even listed on the stock market. I don't think anyone in Australia has the vision, nor the expertise, to be building this project and incorporating the Carbon Carbon Storage like Daelim. They are great partners, and even the most rusted on downrampers can see that this project is going ahead in some way, shape or form..
The big question is the Capex, but now NeuRizer have the binding offtake, the 'sell' should be a lot easier for management. They need to get the share price up now, there are no excuses with a binding offtake worth billions, investors know what Justyn brings to the table, but let's see if Phil can shine. Many think he's more suited to the CFO position, but the next month or so will be the litmus test for him...
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