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Winston Wolf

524 Posts.

83

26/10/23

12:09

Post #: 70550932
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Originally posted by Vaughan94: ↑

Hello everyone, hope you're all well, although, based on some of the comments in this thread, it seems you may not be. You can't look at this from an emotional perspective. Apply logic, base your logic on facts.

Facts:

• A comparison of Volt and any comparable listed company would say Volt shares are cheap (this is frustrating and I admit, has tested my patience but once again "logic over emotion")
• Volt has multiple areas of potential (Downstream American & European, Bunyu Finance, Zavaliesky Graphite & garnet)
• Graphite is starting to show signs of positivity and this is translating in to upward price movements of comparable stocks (Ask yourself, If a sector goes through a positive price movement, are you the investor that buys into the stocks that have recognised that price movement or do you look at the ones that are still in idle?)
• Sometimes the market gets it wrong

Opinion:

• The market has got Volt wildly wrong

When analysing a company I like to think of potential and then likelihood. If a company can multiply its market cap by 5 then I rate it 5/10, if it can multiply its market cap by 10 then it gets 10/10
Then I think how likely is that to happen and how long it might take.
in my opinion:
A) garnet agreement = likely within 6 months
B) Bunyu finance = moderate within 6 months
C) Zavaliesky war ending or non stop production starting = unlikely within 6 months
D) Downstream Grant = Based on what I'm hearing, likely within 6 months

Heres a link to a probability calculator https://www.calctool.org/math-and-statistics/probability

All four coming to fruition in 6 months
= 4.2%

None of the four coming to fruition in 6 months = 4.9%

One or more of these events coming to fruition in 6 months = 95%

Im sure some of you would use more conservative numbers but the fact of the matter is this company has potential in multiple areas at the moment and that compounds the likelihood. Have a play and then be patient, enjoy the summer lads.

Expand

Thanks for the analysis but there's one important variable that has not been inputted into your model and that is the rating of management.

Given the litany of broken promises and failed stated company objectives what rating out of 10 would you give them?

I'm giving them a zero which therefore results in Error when I multiply it with your numbers.

Unfortunately VRC has prime address on the boulevard of broken dreams for most.

WW

VRC Price at posting: 0.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
4 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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