I agree! Here's the latest (including revised target price of $3.93 - I'd settle for $2!) from Canaccord Genuity FWIW:
Lowering Target Price
Customer traction continues; revenue rampup should follow in coming quarters
FY16 revenue of A$0.4m lower than our A$0.8m estimate, but focus is on customers
1-Page reported revenue (excluding FX) of A$0.4m vs our estimate of A$0.8m; however,
we don’t see this as an important measure of the company’s potential value. The focus
for investors is on customer contract conversion and potential revenue in the FY17 year.
Another 20 contracts either closed or being negotiated in 1Q FY17 so far….
Management confirmed there are “an additional 20 contracts” either already signed
or close to being signed, over & above the 24 annual contracts that they previously
announced at the end of January. We assume they have approximately 45 to 50
customers signed or close to being signed at the end of March 2016.
….plus 55 opportunities in the pipeline expected to be converted in near term
A further 55 opportunities are in the active pipeline, which appears to confirm customer
acquisition momentum is growing. We have an expectation they will have an average
of 113 customers on the sourcing platform for the FY17 year, so confidence in our
estimates is increasing.
Sales and marketing efforts to ramp up substantially in coming quarters
Management is expanding the sales team from less than 5 at the end of January to
20-25 by the end of calendar 2016, so we expect a ramp-up in sales conversion to
accelerate as the year progresses. In addition, they have launched an automated
outbound marketing effort to target the ~7,000 small and medium sized businesses,
which could see customer numbers grow more rapidly as the year progresses.
Time to “deliver pools” to customers has fallen from 3 days to 3 hours
The time to deliver pools has come down from 3 days in the 4Q to 3 hours currently. This
allows the company to deliver pools much faster and therefore at a greater scale, driving
higher revenue. This pool delivery time is set to improve to a matter of minutes in the
next month or so, when it launches its latest update, which is expected in late April.
Earnings estimates revised lower due to timing of revenue recognition
We have lowered our revenue forecast for FY17 from A$41.7m (U$29.2m) to A$31.8m (U
$22.2m), or 24% lower than our previous estimate. This is due to our more conservative
assumptions around revenue recognition, where we expect customers to take up to 90
days to on-board and then another month to start invoicing (we have pushed revenue
back by almost a full quarter as a result).
Our EBITDA estimate for FY17 has been reduced from A$12.6m to A$7.9m.
Valuation and price target lower, but maintain SPECULATIVE BUY rating
We are using a blended EV/EBITDA (using FY17 estimates) and DCF valuation to derive a
12-month price target of A$3.93/share which is 24% lower than our previous price target
of A$5.17/share. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.
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