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Ann: 1-Page Quarterly Commentary and Appendix 4C, page-79

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hanlo

160 Posts.

15/02/16

20:59

Post #: 17026168
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Originally posted by beachshack ↑

A very good point. What did happen to those sign ups?

The world according to beach shack as below. Usual caveats.

Laters!

( This is a previous post. Spare the 2 minutes of your life you will spend reading this - summary is in our biased and humble opinion this stock will likely crater at around the NAV of what's left of the $50m it raised).

Hey People!

What a ride.

Below is our post from 28/08 (you can check, so many of you do) when the price was a fair bit higher than it was today.

Here's what we got right:

1 - Still can't see this thing actually work. Just cant find the users. Where are they? Are they now in these new pools? Who? Where? Just point me to a user testimonial.

2 - It got indexed. No brainer

3 - Short time long. Long time short. Yep.

4 - The "institutions" that came on board were big names. But prime brokerage ops. Some of you maybe want to google what this means. And understand that if they bought at $4.50 just what the bet they're making is.

laters! Bring on the flames! Dance, little monkeys, Dance!

(Post from 28/08)

So so many posts quoting me, so little time to read them (or correct their spelling). I'm thinking of incorporating some kind of cult with all this following. Its so nice to know so many of you take my words to heart. Its quite touching.

Now - back to the roller coaster that is 1pg. The question you have to ask is how this business just created $200m+ of value in 7 days and is it sustainable or predictable.

First - let me be ultra clear with our investment thesis. This has been the consistent view since day 1:

1 - The 1PG product doesnt work (disclaimer, caveat, our view, doesnt always wash whiter etc etc). Sorry people. We cant find any place its getting traction. If you think it does and have evidence post this.

2 - The 1PG revenue run rate will not get anywhere close to justifying the valuation. 10 mins with a spreadsheet and you can work this out. Many of you have pointed this out, but consider running a revenue ruler an "obsession".

3 - So the fundamentals aint there. And the great great risk is a bailing out of (approx) 22% of stock that comes out of escrow around October. We think this is a real risk. Let me spell this out - this stock is now worth almost $100m of cold hard folding cash money. WWYD?

However...

4 - This is not a fundamentals led investment. Its a momentum trade. And we all know the market can be irrational long after a contrarian is insolvent. Yes, we get it.

5 - And the indexation of 1pg in to the ASX300 around 15 Sept now looks high probability. This is a long bias.

6 - And institutions are on the register, some possibly synching for this. Again this is a long bias

But that said...

7 - The probability of a stock of this size with no new news adding 50%+ to marcap in 7 days is similar to the probability of being knocked over crossing a road by a car driven by a shark clutching a winning lottery ticket. So not saying impossible. Am saying improbable

8 - And the cost of this (for example today $9m shares traded hands to add $80m of marcap) is highly asymmetric and this always raises many issues that have we are sure simple answers

9 - Which means we think will be a short time long and then a long time short

10 - And we've all seen how that movie ends.

Heres to another thrilling week of 1PG...

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Everytime you post here the price goes up!! Keep posting, Your our lucky charm!!

1PG Price at posting: $2.53 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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