The biggest takeaway from today's announcement are as follows:
1. Assuming everything goes as planned, Gl1 will be producing concentrate by end of 2024, which is less than 3 years from now;
2. The offtake will be at market price at the time, which is important given where lithium prices are going; and
3. The offtake is for up to 45% of the total production, which leaves room for GL1 to agree to other offtakes with potential automakers such as Tesla in due course.
Assuming the company hits those milestones, GL1's market cap can be $2 billion by the end of 2024, which is equivalent to $11-12 a share (7-8x). Assuming there will be some dilution through capital raise, this should at least 5x in the next 3 years.
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- Ann: 10 Year Strategic Spodumene Concentrate Offtake Agreement
Ann: 10 Year Strategic Spodumene Concentrate Offtake Agreement, page-17
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