Some interesting views and musings over the last week. IMO , it's a case of Business as usual with respect to the continued expectations of an imminent re-rate in the SP.......with a high probability of .02 cents being knocked over in the nearer term. Here's a few thoughts as to why I believe this will scenario will eventuate :-
Before , I get stuck into my relative comparison's , I will digress to a degree in a somewhat off topic manner by sharing in a relevant past personal stock market experience. Right.......so I think everyone has an SFR or FMG , or even a KAR story to tell if you've been investing in the Markets for long enough. And of course there are far to many stories just like those - in fact far to many to mention in a single post. Over the years , I have been particularly fortunate if not blessed to have been involved in those as well as many many more. With KAR , I wasn't able to secure an allocation in the IPO , however bought on market shortly after listing at 22.5 cents ( which was peanuts in MC at the time ) , and rode it all the way up until it was valued at over $ 1 Billion.
But as these opportunities provide great learning experiences in there own right along an investor's journey , so to do those that ultimately get away from you .......he ones that slip through the cracks.
These are the ones whereby you can clearly learn the most. With respect to SFR and FMG , whist I was fortunate and blessed with excessive returns on those , I can't help but remember the most ' Gettable ' one which slipped away because I didn't listen to what the ' Whisperer's ' were saying. I say ' gettable ' as it came about as a result of what I like to refer to as the ' Whispering's ' of the Stock Market - which are essentially those ' Whisper Numbers ' of growth and potential growth which arise from those ' connected ' or close to the action or ' in the know ' if you prefer. In this particular case of my missed opportunity experience , there was this indirect family friend who was a Barrister.....and a very good one at that. Always , amazed me as to how diverse and in-depth his knowledge was .....about any subject . You just knew when he looked down over the top of his glasses at you , of the calibre of the response you were going to get. Anyway , I had planned this ' catch-up ' meeting with him to discuss specific stock market activities at the time - just to get a couple of opinions and share ideas.
Unbeknown's to me at the time was the fact he was engaged in corporate work for this small Gold Stock. I remember exchanging ideas on a number of stock's , and then he just looked at me over the top of those glasses and said ' have you looked at this particular stock ? ' . At the time , this stock was trading around 47 cents with a market cap of around 60 million. It was considered a ' Pure ' gold play. I replied with something to the effect .....why what's the deal with this one. He simply responded that he was doing some ' Corporate Legal ' work for them on a couple of their proposed projects. I remember leaving his Home Office with a view that I would check it out - so after a brief bit of DD , I decided not to go ahead with it. However , I remember it wasn't long after our meeting that the SP spike and burst through into the 70's ....and continued re-rating to well over the $1.20 mark and into the mid $1 - $2 in a very very short period of time. This company is now valued at $2.5 Billion !!......
So how does all this relate to our current situation with CTM you ask. Well lets examine the similarities against what I hope I have illustrated in the so called ' Whispering's ' of the market and among the ilk of the Legal & Financial professions......not to mention Geological. With CTM , we have the added advantage with the history with respect to they're obvious abilities and talents in securing ' boutique ' Institutional support in what seems to be raising after raising after raising . And we're not talking about the standard Patto's type variety . I mean they have had absolutely no difficulty at all in securing the likes of Poloton , Bell Potter , Hong Kong's LC Capital Limited , and more recently and including clients and affiliates of the Sprott Group in Canada.
So not only do we have 1 potential ' Billionaire ' and their Canadian Investment Group involved on our Register , but we actually have another ' Billionaire ' in Kerry Harmanis single handedly holing down position 5 in our top 20 holders at the present moment. And that's all before Twynam Investments who you can mount a fair argument has no right to be investing in a company like CTM given they're investing mandates since selling off they're agricultural properties in April 2018 for $115 million. So here they are now ( Twynam ) having vaulted ' themselves into position #1 on our current Top 20 listing.....and all off the back of a rather convenient expansion in the share capital of potentially over a Billion shares. O.k , so we clearly needed to raise the $10 million , but Twynam had obviously been getting in ahead of this event......
So obviously , there is someone who is ' connected ' so to speak deep inside the ranks of CTM ..... And it would appear this person is potentially .very very connected in the ' Whispering's ' of the Markets overall .... a ' Rainmaker ' if you like when it comes to drawing investors attention's into CTM. So this got me thinking of my previous learned experiences in asking myself what is the connection going on here. And not taking anything away from the highly regarded credentials of Mr Chris Banasik or even Gordon who himself is Chartered Accountant with over 25 years of resource sector experience as well as holding a former CFO's position in Gindalbie Metals Limited from 1999-2008. But the real ' Whisperer's ' connection here in my view is the one between our own esteemed Non-Executive Chairman in Messrs Didier M Murcia , AM, B.Juris, LL.B and the other Barrister of the Legal Fraternity in Messrs Kerry Harmanis .
And the reason why I say this is as simple as recognizing the connection and the fact that while Mr Didier M Murcia is also Chairman of Alicanto MineralsLtd where Mr Harmanis is also one of Alicanto's second largest shareholders with a holding of 7,000,333 or 6.05% ........
So for me , and what we know of what Harmanis did with Jubilee Mines, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities or even unimaginable that he see's the potential to capitalize on CTM on the release of value for the Jambreiro Project through a potential sale to a ' Third Party ' - He then take's control of the Nickel Portfolio ( namely the Jaguar Project ) , foster's it and develop's it to then Sell it back to Vale in a similar fashion as was done with Xstrata . Then there is Pebas with ( Gold , Copper , Cobalt ) - so I'm wondering what potential he see's there as well.
Either way , there is now plenty of deep pocketed individuals who are clearly willing to drive these projects forward with real financial support as well as those who appear to be posturing on the register in order to gain maximum advantage should ' effective control ' become an obvious issue going forward.
At the end of the day , we know that Jambreiro was in play in the last Iron Ore boom , and so there is every likelihood they are still sought after now as projects like these do not simply go unnoticed and ignored forever. IMO , I would look for something significant to happen on this front very very soon as this is definitely not just a single play on expected further drilling and expansion of the resource on Jaguar. The markets are ' Whispering ' around CTM so my experience tell's me that we really ought to be listening because ' Control ' is definitely what this recent activity is about IMO...
and that is .....and this is a fair dinkum true story folk's - that in the example of my KAR play many years ago now...... I actually bought 64,000 shares.
And that was primarily on account of that fact that after believing in the ' nearology ' of their offshore tenements , together with the Governments push for massive development of the LNG W.A assets , the overall investment backdrop coupled with ALL the research which indicated to me that they would essentially be the next Woodside Petroleum ....that I was indeed timely in my move into the stock and was so confident in hitting it big that I specifically chose 64,000 because of the ' adage ' of the 64,000 question.I kid you not folk's that when it ran from the high 20's pretty much unabated into the 60's - it actually traded in and around the .64 cent level before heading north and punching through the 90's and up to $1.20.I still laugh to this day how my 64,000 acquisition ended up pausing around .64 cents before bagging me over 30 times. One of many fond memories of my trading over the years... and one I will never forget......
(20min delay)