Ann: $12 million capital raise completed with oversubscribed SPP, page-10

Last time they were at this price level, a price of 40c corresponded to a market cap of $40m.
Now a price of 40c corresponds to a market cap of $60m (and there's a big chunk of options out there now too).

Now, dilution's not unusual or surprising, I can think of very successful companies where there are far more shares out there than when they started out.

The magic words there are "very successful." If the business grows to outpace dilution then the share price goes up. That hasn't happened here.

Superficially, it can be argued that PIQ has achieved very little in five years. Because that's where the share price is- back to five years ago.

Now I can also see the counter-argument, which is why I use the word "superficially", but in a lot of ways the company looks similar to five years ago: revenues are much the same, there are an endless array of announcements about medical studies showing how great the tech is, but the great step forward to fully going to market has not occurred.

I'm a bit leery of the idea that the company has only done a massively larger raise than they planned for out of sheer generosity.

So let's look at the numbers. The original raise was planned to be $5.5m. They managed to raise $12m. (to be fair, if there's that much interest that's some sort of vote of confidence).

They spend ~$2m/q, had $3m in the bank at the end of last quarter so as at the beginning of July they should have $13m in the bank. That's notionally 6 quarters (1.5 years) of money available.

If they'd only raised $5.5m then that would have only given them 9 months max.

So, in my mind, I'm giving them a year. They need to get to market and get enough market penetration to have significant revenue flow. That revenue needs to be close to breakeven. They've had enough time.

I worry that this raise is likely to be seen as a vote of approval in management, and that by effectively raising themselves extra time, they can kick back and relax and keep on doing things the same way they always have.

That won't be good enough.

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm over-dramatising things, but this raise looks like the last roll of the dice to me. If they can't persuade the market that there's money in this game in the next 12-18 months, I don't think people will be back for another round if there's no revenue, the price is still at 40c and everyone from the last raise can remember all those lapsed options.

So good luck everyone, let's see if they can step up.