@slipperymack ... I'm picturing a close to worse case scenario of 2.5B shares on issue, which includes the cheap in the money options (not necessarily taken up), even a Mcap of all that approaching $1B would mean 40c/sh, which is a 3 bagger from here. To get a total of $100M would need the cap raises to average around 20c..
IMHO the days of options included with the cap raise should be over after discovery, most companies raise funds without extra freebie options, can't see why we should be giving them away.
I always count near or in the money options when working out Mcap as it shows the real dilution and current situation of where the upside is. I'm counting all the 20c options as a part of the MCap, as at 40c they will be well in the money..
The biggest danger for shareholders is the results being much poorer than anyone expects, but Mukuyu is so large and so is the basin, that just the 34 metres we already have pretty much discounts that, assuming reasonable permeability, porosity and pressure. Several Tcf would be assumed as a minimum just for Mukuyu, let alone the rest of the basin..
Remember just 1 trillion cubic ft of gas at a $US6/Gj; way cheaper than international prices, would be sales of over $US6B!!
We have initial discovery, it is now just a matter of adding to and delivery of overall project. This is where we need quality decision making and management.
Perhaps we should be starting to also question Scott on longer term plans/goals from now forward, and not just short term.
Things like; 2 year plan, initial sales to portable generators, 5-6 wells including string of pearls and one more well further East.
5 year plan, farming out xxxxxx for oil, while 5 production wells in yyyyyy. Gas production facility of zzzz size, pipeline planning to sssss, increase electricity sales and production to rrrrr, etc.
Or perhaps something radically different, no matter, what's the plan/goal??
I personally see the company pouring every cent of any sales straight back into further discovery and development for years, well over 5 years...
IVZ Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
