IVZ 4.23% 7.4¢ invictus energy ltd

Ann: $15m raised to fund Well Test & Cabora Bassa Operations, page-484

  1. 6,568 Posts.
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    You are comparing a company that has proved production, to a company that still has not even got their joint venture partner yet (which the director said they are actively looking for).

    I understand why you wanted to ignore all the other points I mentioned (because they are extremely valid)

    Points:
    1) If they build a pipeline where would it be too?
    2) Do they need to build their own tank battery?
    3) At what price would you sell the gas? For a long time gas was not even valuable at all, now it is becoming more valuable, but many rigs still just flare the gas because it's not worth trying to produce it lol... Whereas ASX:MAY knows its upper sheet is worth WTI-5%
    (source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlZmSIP5rz4&ab_channel=InvestorStream) (still very valuable even if you want to call it "tar" [which it isn't that is actually a tier of API different "very heavy" instead of "heavy" but lies are something you have a habit of, remember telling us IVZ didn't need a capital raise?]
    4) How much capital cost is required to export (if they only supply to one gas peaking plant, that is not sustainable cash flow).
    5) IVZ admitted some of their sections only yielded "residual hydrocarbons" (source: 71685414) and in other sections, they didn't have a "trap" (source: 71685414). The appraisal test is going to be everything for IVZ, if it fails in the section they actually were able to get a sample from, then that will be a massive blow to the company. I believe the appraisal tests will fail, I believe this because of the never-ending trouble they have with their well stability and possibly a lack of pressure from the reservoir. When the director keeps telling you the geology is complicated... that tells me the seals/traps could be leaking (very bad). Then... unfortunately it doesn't end there, they also need to prove "commercial quantities" not just residual. Meaning the reservoir needs to demonstrate a recharge instead of just an initial flow and cease forever immediately after. The oil and gas analogy is "is it a flash in the pan or the real deal"?
    6) Instead of lying about IVZ's relationship with investment banks, the ASX:MAY director just told us they actually are "engaging" with investment banks lol... (source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlZmSIP5rz4&ab_channel=InvestorStream)
    7) IVZ still need many many cap raises or a joint venture partner for the initial capital expenditure for infrastructure, if they ever want to produce. However... I believe their appraisals will fail due to a lack of seal/trap, pressure and well stability, possibly also an absence of a commercial quantity of hydrocarbons (residual =/= commercial quantity).

    I could do on, but I think you get the point.

 
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