I expressed the view yesterday that there is likely to be a...

I expressed the view yesterday that there is likely to be a considerable scale back and I stand by that as long as the SP holds up above $1.45. They may increase the SPP above $5M which would help but we won't know until it closes. $5M across approx. 10,000 shareholders is $500 or 345 shares. This is a stock of some significant interest given recent publicity etc. so I expect the demand will far outstrip supply. You just need to look at recent SPP examples. KYK last week (share price was 15-20% above SPP price) and over subscribed 800%. Small Company and smaller raise so maybe not comparable but indicates there is cash aplenty out there. CXO another good example, 3x oversubscribed and they dobbed in another $10M to make it a $25M raise but still a substantial scale back.

The same will apply here, as long as the share price holds. It's normal of the market to rerate based on the price of a capital raising (and that's why it's disappointing when the discount is large) and far fairer for small shareholders to have a rights issue. At least a guaranteed allocation and minimal dilution.