The following is a revision of my earlier calcs and post...I believe it is a reasonable approximation if the value per share to us.
........
Further about the Royalty deal and whether it is dilutive...Obviously there is a cost for this additional cash on our balance sheet. But one needs to make a complex calculation about the net present value of whatever funds are forthcoming.
Our share which is 80% of the initial USD5m payment is equivalent to around AUD0.01 per existing AW1 share. So in simplistic terms there would need to be an entitlement issue of 1 new share for every 13 existing shares at the current share price (of say $0.13 per share) to get the same amount of funds in. And that's just the down payment promised.
I acknowledge that the ongoing cost to the top line in any producing state in the future is material, but based on the expectation of a robust low cost DSO operation, we would still be laughing all the way to the bank. And then there's the remaining incentive based payments totalling a further AUD11.25m (or AUD0.016 per existing AW1 share) still to come (total payments of AUD0.026 per existing share for this royalty). Or the same as an entitlement of 1 for 5 at current share price of AUS0.13 per share.
The incentive hurdles for later payments look pretty easy to jump to me. We are well on our way to financing the future operation and whatever additional funding that is needed will be raised at a price well above where we are right now. After decision to mine then Aston Bay has to pay its own way.
For a holder with a decent number of shares purchased at today's price that overall looks pretty attractive to me. This all assumes we have the goods for a mine and I think even based on existing MRE, we probably do. Getting to 400,000tonnes of contained copper looks totally doable as well.
Regards
DF
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